It’s an award shared by Stalin, Gandhi, JFK, Obama, Trump, Hitler, and Putin — TIME’s Person of the Year. Technically, some won “Man of the Year,” since the title changed in 1999. This award highlights a person, group, idea, or object that “for better or worse has done the most to influence the events of the year.” Unsurprisingly, the largest category of winners is heads of state, with 23 US presidents (14 unique winners). Franklin D. Roosevelt is the only three-time winner, matching the number of wins by all popes combined.
I’m paying attention to it now because of a betting market for it on Kalshi, which is a CFTC-regulated betting market platform where users trade on the outcome of real-world events.
Currently, as of writing on May 30, Sam Altman is winning at an 18% chance and AI is behind at 16%. Taylor Swift, the 2023 winner, sits at 8%, tied with ChatGPT.
Now one reason to favor Sam Altman in this case is that the Kalshi market rules state “if “Sam Altman” was the Person of the Year, and the cover showed a person using ChatGPT on their computer, “ChatGPT” would not resolve to Yes because it is not a person.”
Nevertheless, my vote is with ChatGPT because of its news prevelance and meteoric growth. Yet based on history, this might not be the smartest guess as a company’s product (ChatGPT being OpenAI’s LLM) has never won. In related terms, inanimate ojbects have only won twice: The Computer (1982) and The Endangered Earth (1988) and abstract concepts have only won once: The Spirit of Ukraine (2022).
There have been 11 classes of unnamed people who’ve won. You and I both shared this priviledge in 2006 when “You”won to recognize the millions of people who anonymously contribute user-generated content.
- The American fighting-man / The American soldier (1950 and 2003)
- The Hungarian freedom fighter (1956)
- U.S. scientists (1960)
- The Inheritor (1966)
- Middle Americans (1969)
- American women (1975)
- You (2006)
- The Protester (2011)
- Ebola fighters (2014)
- The Silence Breakers (2017)
- The Guardians (2018)
You never want to count out TSwfit. She was the first Person of the Year recognized for “achievement in the arts.” Swift was also part of the 2017 “Silence Breakers,” making her the first woman to be recognized more than once and the first to appear twice on the Person of the Year cover.
Ultimately, this is a TIME editorial decision aimed at selling more magazines. The award, created 96 years ago, was designed to combat “slow news days” before New Year’s. It also sought to remedy the editorial embarrassment of not featuring aviator Charles Lindbergh on its cover following his historic transatlantic flight.
Let’s see what the markets say…
july 7, 2024 update
The June 27th presidential debate’s surprising omission of AI discussion has cast doubt on its near frontrunner status. Now, elected officials seem poised to reclaim the spotlight based on the everpresent debate coverage and its aftermath in the newscycle.
Kamala Harris, Biden’s most likley replacement, is not a Kalshi option at the moment. But if she wins, that certainly makes her a favorite for TIME’s person of the year in my eyes; first female president of the USA, not to mention the Democratic Party savior.
If someone else becomes the Democratic nominee over and wins, it will likely be them. If Biden steps down and democrats win, that could leave his legacy in a favorable place, but the new president will have the spotlight.
With 6 months left in the year, it’s also a possibility that international politicians and peace brokers in Ukraine or the Gaza-Israel conflict who could emerge as strong contenders.
unpublished alpha 