I watch trailers and wonder how much they spent.
Not box office. The actual negative cost.
I started building a method that a normal person can use.
The idea is simple.
Price the people.
Price each day.
Price the illusions.
Then adjust for travel, sets, and tax rebates.
Below is how I do it.
the quick formula I keep in my notes
Budget ≈ above-the-line + daily burn × shoot days + vfx shots × cost per shot + set pieces × sequence cost + post + travel and builds − incentives
I read that as a story.
Who got paid to show up.
How long the circus ran.
How hard the illusions were.
How far the circus moved.
What money came back from a government.
what “tentpole” really means
A tentpole is a studio’s anchor title.
It props up a quarter or a year.
Think a franchise sequel or a four-quadrant bet (one that is designed to appeal to all four major demographic groups: males and females, and both those under and over 25 years of age).
Tentpoles carry star salaries and heavy marketing.
They run long shoots with large units.
They usually exceed a thousand visual effects shots.
You can feel a tentpole in the trailer.
Epic scale, global stakes, multiple wow moments.
You also see ten production logos and long end credits.
price the people first
Above-the-line are writers, producers, director, and leads.
A single A-list lead can add 15–30 million.
A top director can add 5–10 million.
Ensembles push costs sideways.
Two strong TV names cost less than one true film star.
IP rights can add a hidden fee when a brand is involved.
Examples help.
“Barbie” needed Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling.
Greta Gerwig carried director heat and a writing fee.
“Oppenheimer” paid for Christopher Nolan’s gravity.
Cillian Murphy is not cheap but not Tom Cruise money.
Multiple prestige actors likely took smart deals.
“John Wick 4” rests on Keanu Reeves.
Chad Stahelski as director is the brand.
Strong supporting names join at action-friendly rates.
understand the daily burn
Daily burn is what a day costs to run.
Indie films burn 100–300k per day.
Studio films burn 500k–1.5m per day.
Tentpoles can burn 2–4m per day.
Longer shoots mean a steeper slope.
Overtime turns slopes into cliffs.
Shoot length matters.
Indies often shoot 20–30 days.
Studio dramas shoot 40–60 days.
Tentpoles stretch to 80–120 days.
Second units extend that footprint.
Night work and company moves spike costs.
Examples help.
“Oppenheimer” used large-format film and practical builds.
That raises burn even with fewer vfx shots.
“John Wick 4” shot in several countries.
Travel days and street closures cost real money.
Stunts require resets and safety time.
guess the number of vfx shots
You can guess from the trailer.
Count the obvious digital moments in one minute.
Multiply by runtime and add for invisible work.
My rule of thumb is this.
Fewer than 300 shots is light.
300–800 is medium.
800–2,500 is heavy.
Over 2,500 is extreme.
Invisible vfx doubles your first count.
Shot cost also changes the math.
Simple fixes can be 5–15k per shot.
Creature work runs 20–50k per shot.
Complex simulation can be 75–150k per shot.
Crowd duplication sits in the middle.
De-aging is closer to the top.
“Dune: Part Two” feels heavy.
Sand, spice, creatures, and vehicles.
Likely well over a thousand shots.
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” fools you.
Few artists did many shots with ingenuity.
That keeps spend low despite density.
“A Quiet Place” feels light.
The creatures still count when they appear.
Sound carries weight while vfx stay contained.
count set pieces like a producer
A set piece is a large designed sequence.
Car chases, train fights, mass battles, big musical numbers.
Each one acts like a mini movie.
I price them in bands.
Grounded action can run 3–5 million each.
Complex destruction can run 7–10 million each.
Water, fire, animals add a surcharge.
Kids and nights add schedule pressure.
Crowds increase cost for every reset.
“John Wick 4” has several distinct set pieces.
The Arc de Triomphe fight is high burn.
The staircase sequence is a reset magnet.
“Barbie” trades explosions for world-building.
The sets are architectural and color-true.
That money sits in stages, paint, and props.
see the world, price the moves
Travel multiplies costs fast.
Two countries add 5–15 million.
Per diems, freight, and visas compound.
Stages beat constant company moves.
A self-contained backlot reduces chaos.
A built house can be cheaper than many real ones.
“Parasite” built its famous house.
That choice gave control and speed.
A single controlled world beat endless company moves.
“Dune: Part Two” used real deserts and large stages.
You feel the logistics in every shot.
That shows up in the burn.
do not forget post
Post is editorial, color, mix, music, and deliverables.
Non-vfx dramas often land at 3–10 million.
Vfx-heavy films spend far more in post.
Needle-drop music adds cost.
Iconic songs can run 200k–1m each.
A big soundtrack can rival a small set piece.
“Oppenheimer” spent on sound and film finishing.
Large-format workflows are costly.
The mix and the print count matter.
“Barbie” has many music cues.
Some cues are brand-level songs.
Music clearances add real numbers.
incentives bend the curve
Tax credits give spend back after audit.
Georgia, the UK, and Canada are famous hubs.
A 20–35% rebate on eligible spend is common.
Not all spend is eligible.
Above-the-line can be excluded or capped.
Local hires and vendors often count fully.
Credits change where shows land.
They also change when money arrives.
Studios sometimes report budgets net of credits.
signals you can spot from home
Look for format choices in press notes.
IMAX or 65mm suggests deep pockets.
3D mastering adds post costs.
Scan trailers for number of worlds.
Different climates imply travel.
Many crowd shots suggest overtime.
Watch the end credits for vendor count.
Ten vfx houses means scope and schedule risk.
A single vendor can mean tight control or tight money.
Listen for needle drops.
Two famous songs in a trailer signal spend.
Expect two more in the film.
a few fast heuristics
Water multiplies everything by a third.
Kids and night work add a fifth.
Animals add handlers, resets, and delay.
Car flips cost seven figures for a day.
Crowds demand endless continuity labor.
The volume wall saves travel, not crews.
Reshoots often mean 5–20% more.
Many vfx vendors in credits suggest schedule strain.
Long gaps to release hint at costly fixes.
a compact example you can run yourself
Take a grounded action film.
One star at 15 million.
Director at 5 million.
Daily burn at 1 million.
Shoot for 70 days.
That is 70 million.
Add three set pieces at 5 million each.
That is 15 million.
Add 800 vfx shots at 25k each.
That is 20 million.
Post at 10 million.
Travel at 5 million.
Gross subtotal is 140 million.
Now subtract a 25% credit on 80 million eligible.
You remove 20 million.
Net lands near 120 million.
Marketing could double that for a wide release.
Streaming deals shift more into upfront.
a short section on marketing because it matters
P&A is prints and advertising.
That means media, trailers, posters, and logistics.
For a wide release, P&A can equal half the production.
Tentpoles can spend far more.
Global campaigns can hit nine figures.
Streamers spend less in public but more on talent buyouts.
Marketing also drives schedule choices.
Some titles chase holidays for audience mix.
Some chase festivals for awards momentum.
You can read the spend in the cityscape.
Billboards, takeovers, and stunts add up fast.
A pink-painted house in Malibu is not cheap.
how I sanity check myself
I always find three comps in the same lane.
I check cast tier and shot density.
I note countries and format.
Then I narrow to a band, not a number.
Bands reflect how chaos behaves.
Films slip, shots grow, days extend.
This is the fun of it.
You are guessing a living machine.
The machine fights your math.
why this works for non-insiders
Studios hide precise costs.
They rarely hide the work on screen.
Trailers and credits leak the structure.
If you can count and classify, you can estimate.
Price the people, days, illusions, and moves.
Subtract the free money.
You will be wrong on details.
You will be close on shape.
And shape is what matters.
unpublished alpha 