15 days ago, I predicted that Mark Kelly would be Kamala Harris’ VP pick when Polymarket had his odds at 19%. The media soon aligned with my prediction, and Polymarket odds surged to nearly 40% within 24-48 hours (not necessarily because of my article, but who knows). Earlier today, however, Tim Walz was announced as her VP pick.
At the time, Tim Walz wasn’t even listed as an option on Polymarket. Admittedly, I’m not very familiar with Minnesota politics and hadn’t the name Tim Walz until 24 hours ago when he and Shapiro emerged as top contenders based on Polymarket odds and mainstream media reports.
48 hours ago VP Harris met with Shapiro, Walz, Kelly,
and a few other less probable picks—Andy Beshear, J.B. Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg—causing rapid shifts in the markets. Now I don’t feel too bad about my prediction because Van Jones did call Walz a dark horse candidate though “coming out of nowhere.”
Now that I’m learning about Walz, he definitely seems like a smart pick. As a former congressman and now in his second term as governor with high approval ratings, he has enacted progressive policies with Democratic legislative support. His achievements include protecting abortion access, legalizing recreational marijuana, restricting gun access, providing free school meals for all children, expanding paid family leave, and promoting affordable housing.
Walz started his career with over 20 years in the Coast Guard, was a high school teacher and football coach, winning the Minnesota state high school football championship in 1999. Then, he then served as a U.S. Representative for Minnesota, being re-elected five times before becoming governor. As governor, Walz managed the state’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, addressed civil unrest following George Floyd’s death with a focus on police reform and community rebuilding, and prioritized education, healthcare, and renewable energy initiatives.
But now let’s focus on my decision-making process. This blog has been invaluable for cataloging my decisions, forcing me to confront my mistakes and continuously refine my approach.
I over-emphasized electoral college priorities, considering Minnesota’s consistent Democratic voting in the past 12 elections. However, having a Midwestern candidate, distanced from the West Coast (elite) image, clearly offers strategic advantages.
I relied too heavily on Polymarket’s existing picks, assuming that if it wasn’t a bettable outcome, it couldn’t happen. Additionally, I overlooked Walz’s recent surge in popularity, particularly his “Republicans are weird” line. This is significant because Dems often lag when it comes to memes and quippy taglines or nicknames.
Sure, this article would’ve been way shorter if it were titled “I was right: Mark Kelly is the VP pick” But, I’m glad I learned something new.
unpublished alpha 